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Trump won his job by promising to make America great again. His approach is not that hard to understand. Deep analysis is not required. At the core of his thinking is the idea that setting the right conditions in place will restore American manufacturing to the glory days of yore. He will cut taxes, drive down fossil fuel energy costs, and throw up protections at the border. All this will make producing things in America more attractive.

His approaches could incrementally increase investments in American manufacturing. On the downside, they may also make the things we buy cost more. Basic economics dictates that to be true. On balance, it is difficult to say if the net gains from more American production would offset the higher costs of goods and services. In general, not pursuing the most efficient forms of production means higher costs in the long run, which is not really good.

Putting that debate aside, here’s the real deal, if made, those incremental investments are not going to bring the jobs back. I spent over ten years in manufacturing in roles that were all about how do we grow our business by making and selling more stuff in North America. We gladly invested in businesses that could turn a profit. We gladly built plants, expanded production lines, and hired workers if the profit potential was good. We also invested a lot in automation.

It Comes Down to Profits and Costs

Fifteen years after I first worked in a manufacturing role, I was astonished to walk through production halls with only a few people running many, high output production lines. On top of that, the work was not that physically demanding. They were as much about brain power as about man power. Workers interfaced with sophisticated, computer controlled equipment. They monitored digital readouts and screens to decide what to adjust, how to do it, and how to communicate what was going to the rest of the plant. They rarely touched the raw materials or the finished goods. In another room, a manager monitored flexing energy prices and decided when to ramp up or down processes to minimize energy costs.

We had moved most of the labor-intensive work to Mexico where folks would work for cheap. We did that so our customers, car companies and appliance companies, could keep product prices low for their consumers. If we did not have the option of cheap labor, we worked hard to automate.

Manufacturers who might invest in new US manufacturing will do everything in their power to drive down costs. A major component of any manufacturer’s strategy is employing ways to minimize labor costs. If you cannot hire low-cost labor, you figure out a way to get a machine to do the work. And, the cheaper energy is, the bigger the advantage the machines have. Manufacturers will also look at logistics costs. What does it cost to ship things to my customers? Again, low cost fossil fuels means manufacturers do not have to be close to their customers.

So, we may well see more companies invest in manufacturing in America under Trump’s plan, but they’re not going be knocking on your door to offer you a job unless you are willing to work for a low wage or have the skills to run a high-tech, automated production line. They will not hire you unless it benefits the bottom line.

Manufacturers Are Not the Red Cross

No matter what Trumps policies are, manufacturers will decide where to produce and how to produce based on profits. In the US, because labor costs are relatively high, that will mean heavy investments in automation. They will not prioritize giving you, your kids, or your grandchildren a job over maximizing shareholder value. As, I was reminded often in my days in industry, a manufacturing company is not the Red Cross.

Regardless of what Trump does, the need for the public remains the same. We have to do a better job equipping people to work in the 21st century. Without explicit policies to do that, there is no hope for the working class. On top of all that, the people who fall into that working class group, best take some responsibility to get themselves prepared. Tump’s plans are not going to help you, because what Bruce Springsteen said is true, “…these jobs are going boys and they ain’t coming back…” especially the ones that do not require high level skills.