Trump won his job by promising to make America great again. His approach is not that hard to understand. Deep analysis is not required. At the core of his thinking is the idea that setting the right conditions in place will restore American manufacturing to the glory days of yore. He will cut taxes, drive down fossil fuel energy costs, and throw up protections at the border. All this will make producing things in America more attractive.

His approaches could incrementally increase investments in American manufacturing. On the downside, they may also make the things we buy cost more. Basic economics dictates that to be true. On balance, it is difficult to say if the net gains from more American production would offset the higher costs of goods and services. In general, not pursuing the most efficient forms of production means higher costs in the long run, which is not really good.

Putting that debate aside, here’s the real deal, if made, those incremental investments are not going to bring the jobs back. I spent over ten years in manufacturing in roles that were all about how do we grow our business by making and selling more stuff in North America. We gladly invested in businesses that could turn a profit. We gladly built plants, expanded production lines, and hired workers if the profit potential was good. We also invested a lot in automation. Continue reading →